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02 Jun 2015
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All eyes on Greek bailout talks as deadlines loom

United States Dollar: Cable followed in the footsteps of EUR/USD yesterday, pushing gradually higher throughout the day. This push continued overnight and the pair traded to a high of 1.5375 early this morning. Investors are increasingly confident that a deal will be struck between Greece and its lenders to avoid a default on Friday and to secure its next lot of financial aid. In other news yesterday, May’s UK Construction PMI printed better than expected which supported the mover higher in GBP/USD. There wasn’t much by way of high impact US data on the docket on the day. That changes today and although a lot of the focus will be on the Greece story – with creditors likely due to submit a “take it or leave” deal to Athens today – there’s still plenty of other important events and data including UK Services PMI this morning, the ECB monetary policy meeting, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5245 to 1.5450

Euro: Greek creditors and Athens both submitted bailout proposals to each other yesterday and as the news of this happening broke, EUR/USD snapped higher. Furthermore, European CPI data released yesterday was surprisingly positive as the flash estimate for May printed at 0.3% vs. forecasts for 0.2%. EUR/USD pushed through 1.10 and went on to trade to a high of 1.1187 by the end of the day. Greek PM Tsipras is due to meet with EC President Jean-Claude Juncker today to discuss Athens’ proposals, this following private meetings between its various creditors earlier in the week. The outcome of upcoming meetings will likely lead to volatility in FX markets as investors try to gauge whether the release of €7.2bn in remaining bailout funding is forthcoming. Meanwhile, there remains a solid chance that Greece could still default on a €300m loan re-payment by the end of the week. The euro holds on to its gains made yesterday vs. the dollar and opens in London at 1.1157. GBP/EUR has remained at the bottom of its most recent range and trades at 1.3770 currently.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.3600 to 1.4020

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars: The aussie dollar got a boost overnight following the release of better than expected Australian GDP data which showed that the economy expanded by 2.3% from this time last year during the first quarter and vs. forecasts for 2.1%. The rally in EUR/USD was also supportive of the move higher in AUD/USD and during the last 24 hours it has pushed from .7665 to a high of .7818. NZD/USD has tracked AUD/USD higher too and the kiwi opens this morning at .7160. Both are higher vs. the pound too and GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD trade at 1.9710 and 2.1455 respectively.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.9600 to 1.9845

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.1300 to 2.1580

Data Releases

AUD: Retail Sales m/m, Trade Balance

EUR: Retail Sales m/m, Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate, Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference

GBP: Services PMI

NZD: No data

USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance, Final Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories

If you want instant updates on movements in the FX market and fast access to the UKForex daily commentary, follow us on twitter at http://twitter.com/ukforex or @ukforex

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02 Jun 2015
Share

All eyes on Greek bailout talks as deadlines loom

United States Dollar: Cable followed in the footsteps of EUR/USD yesterday, pushing gradually higher throughout the day. This push continued overnight and the pair traded to a high of 1.5375 early this morning. Investors are increasingly confident that a deal will be struck between Greece and its lenders to avoid a default on Friday and to secure its next lot of financial aid. In other news yesterday, May’s UK Construction PMI printed better than expected which supported the mover higher in GBP/USD. There wasn’t much by way of high impact US data on the docket on the day. That changes today and although a lot of the focus will be on the Greece story – with creditors likely due to submit a “take it or leave” deal to Athens today – there’s still plenty of other important events and data including UK Services PMI this morning, the ECB monetary policy meeting, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5245 to 1.5450

Euro: Greek creditors and Athens both submitted bailout proposals to each other yesterday and as the news of this happening broke, EUR/USD snapped higher. Furthermore, European CPI data released yesterday was surprisingly positive as the flash estimate for May printed at 0.3% vs. forecasts for 0.2%. EUR/USD pushed through 1.10 and went on to trade to a high of 1.1187 by the end of the day. Greek PM Tsipras is due to meet with EC President Jean-Claude Juncker today to discuss Athens’ proposals, this following private meetings between its various creditors earlier in the week. The outcome of upcoming meetings will likely lead to volatility in FX markets as investors try to gauge whether the release of €7.2bn in remaining bailout funding is forthcoming. Meanwhile, there remains a solid chance that Greece could still default on a €300m loan re-payment by the end of the week. The euro holds on to its gains made yesterday vs. the dollar and opens in London at 1.1157. GBP/EUR has remained at the bottom of its most recent range and trades at 1.3770 currently.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.3600 to 1.4020

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars: The aussie dollar got a boost overnight following the release of better than expected Australian GDP data which showed that the economy expanded by 2.3% from this time last year during the first quarter and vs. forecasts for 2.1%. The rally in EUR/USD was also supportive of the move higher in AUD/USD and during the last 24 hours it has pushed from .7665 to a high of .7818. NZD/USD has tracked AUD/USD higher too and the kiwi opens this morning at .7160. Both are higher vs. the pound too and GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD trade at 1.9710 and 2.1455 respectively.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.9600 to 1.9845

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.1300 to 2.1580

Data Releases

AUD: Retail Sales m/m, Trade Balance

EUR: Retail Sales m/m, Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate, Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference

GBP: Services PMI

NZD: No data

USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance, Final Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories

If you want instant updates on movements in the FX market and fast access to the UKForex daily commentary, follow us on twitter at http://twitter.com/ukforex or @ukforex

Learn more about