30 Dec 2014

Euro ends 2014 near multi-year lows

United States Dollar: It’s been a quiet 24 hours in the currency markets with thin trading due to the Christmas/New Year holidays. Cable has traded between 1.55 and 1.5575 over the past day and currently sits at 1.5560. Yesterday saw the Nationwide House Price Index show monthly growth of 0.2%, slightly under the 0.3% expected. This follows the trend in the second half of 2014 of slowing house prices in the UK. Yesterday afternoon saw a strong Conference Board Consumer Confidence reading from the States. The reading of 92.6 was less than the 94.6 expected however this was still the second highest number since the financial crash. Today’s one release of note will be US Unemployment Claims from the States with 287k expected.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.55 to 1.56

Euro: Yesterday saw more deflationary worries from the Eurozone with Spanish CPI showing a -1.1% fall in prices from December 2014 – 2015. EUR/USD continues to trade near two year lows and is currently at 1.2156. Wednesday 7th Jan sees the latest CPI estimate from the Eurozone, the last reading was a dangerously low 0.3% and should this fall further it seems QE will have to be implemented by the ECB. GBP/EUR trades at 1.28.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.2730 to 1.2860

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars: There is no top tier data this week from either Australia or New Zealand. The commodities may suffer from risk aversion should the Greek election situation see USD buying. AUD/USD is at .8136; NZD/USD is at .7776; GBP/AUD is at 1.9131 and GBP/NZD 2.0005

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.8950 – 1.91

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.9820 – 1.9970

Data Releases

AUD: No data

EUR: No data

GBP: No data

NZD: No data

USD: Unemployment Claims

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