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29 Jun 2015
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Euro holds firm as Greek debt deadline nears

United States Dollar: GBP/USD has been fairly steady over the last 24 hours. It recovered in line with EUR/USD yesterday afternoon and reached an intra-day high of 1.5780. As mentioned yesterday, this recovery was party supported by FX intervention by the Swiss National Bank who sought to prevent the CHF from appreciating too much on the back of safe haven demand. The Greek headlines are set to continue rolling today with midnight tonight being the deadline for Greece to repay €1.6 billion in debt to the IMF. In other news today, UK Current Account and Final GDP data is due this morning, followed by consumer confidence data from the US this afternoon. GBP/USD opens at 1.5705.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5650 to 1.5760

Euro: EUR/USD recovered yesterday as profit taking kicked in during the mid-morning session and on the back of SNB intervention. There may also be a feeling permeating markets that the Eurozone may actually be better without Greece, although the reaction in stock markets hardly suggests this. The pull back in the euro yesterday was impressive though and it holds firm this morning at 1.1170 vs. the USD. It’s a touch stronger vs. the pound too and GBP/EUR trades at 1.4055. Expect more volatility over the next few days – even weeks – as the Greek situation continues to play out.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.4000 to 1.4130

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars: AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both steady this morning and have been pretty much side-lined overnight. The kiwi is a little lower after the release of weaker than expected business confidence data. RBA Governor Stevens is speaking in London this morning and his comments may have an impact on AUD over the next hour or so. Watch out for a plethora of economic data from China tonight too. GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD are pretty much unchanged from yesterday’s opening levels and trade at 2.0460 and 2.3075 respectively.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 2.0350 to 2.0510

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.2950 to 2.3200

Data Releases

AUD: RBA Gov Stevens Speaks, AIG Manufacturing Index, Building Approvals m/m

EUR: German Unemployment Change, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Unemployment Rate

GBP: MPC Member Haldane Speaks

NZD: No data

USD: Chicago PMI, CB Consumer Confidence

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