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30 Jun 2015
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Euro unmoved as Greece misses its debt repayment deadline

United States Dollar: So unsurprisingly Greece missed its IMF debt repayment deadline, this after further last minute negotiations broke down yesterday. EUR/USD bounced around late yesterday afternoon before and after the London currency fix (the point at which a benchmark foreign exchange rate is set (4pm daily)). The rhetoric and rumours over Greece fuelled the volatility and EUR/USD snapped lower from 1.1240 to 1.1115 over the space of an hour or so. GBP/USD went with it and fell from 1.5770 to 1.5712, its move being obviously less aggressive than the move in EUR/USD. The pair did continue to fall throughout the Asia session however and it eventually dropped to 1.5680. It’s recovered a bit to open at 1.5701 this morning ahead of UK Manufacturing PMI at 9:30, the Financial Stability Report at 10:30 and a follow up press conference by Bank of England Governor Carney. This will be the immediate focus for cable traders this morning but the Greek headlines will continue to flow and grab attention of course.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5650 to 1.5800

Euro: Although Greece missed its deadline for repaying its €1.5 billion loan to the IMF, ministers are already set to begin discussions on a new two-year bailout today, but it can only receive financing once it has cleared its arrears. The ECB has also stopped supplying liquidity to Greek banks. The country remains part of the Eurozone for now though and given that none of the above came as an immediate surprise to investors, the euro has remained relatively steady with EUR/USD continuing to trade above 1.10. In fact, it opens this morning at 1.1105. The Greek headlines won’t stop and expect more comments, rhetoric and referendum polls to drive price action before the week is out.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.4080 to 1.4195

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars: Again, both AUD/USD and NZD/USD have taken a sideways step while the Greek situation plays out. Both currencies have pushed mildly higher vs. the dollar overnight but it’s hardly been a big move with the two pairs opening this morning at .7715 and .6790 respectively. Economic data from China overnight failed to surprise and Australian Building Approvals beat expectations, supporting the currency’s move higher overnight. GBP/AUD is back below 2.04 as a result and GBP/NZD opens at 2.3140.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 2.0290 to 2.0500

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.3050 to 2.3245

Data Releases

AUD: Trade Balance

EUR: Italian Manufacturing PMI, French Final Manufacturing PMI, German Final Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, Eurogroup Meetings

GBP: Manufacturing PMI, BOE Gov Carney Speaks, BOE Financial Stability Report

NZD: No data

USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing Prices

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