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25 Mar 2015

GBP/USD steadies around 1.49 ahead of Retail Sales

United States Dollar: It’s been a steady last 24 hours for GBP/USD. It started the day yesterday sub 1.49 and rallied at 12:30pm following the release of weaker than expected US Durable Goods Orders. Demand for these goods unexpectedly dropped in February by 1.4% vs. predictions for a rise of 0.3%. The dollar fell and cable rallied to 1.4946. As the day went on, the pair fell back towards the 1.49 figure, a reaction to some fairly hawkish comments from US Fed member Lockhart. He said that the only reason the central bank wouldn’t hike rates in September would be if “we were really disappointed in the stream of data that comes in”. It fell just under 1.49 but is up again this morning to open the London session at 1.4935, being dragged higher by good bids in EUR/USD (which is back through 1.10). UK Retail Sales will be watched closely this morning while BoE Governor Carney is due to speak later tonight in Frankfurt, although there may not be too much reference to UK monetary policy.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.4890 to 1.5000

Euro: EUR/USD traded a tight range yesterday between 1.0945 and 1.1004. Stronger than expected German Ifo data (a business climate index) released yesterday morning failed to give the single currency any real impetus despite it showing that confidence had increased for the fifth consecutive month. Sentiment towards the euro has turned a bit more offish just recently as the ongoing Greek saga remains close to the forefront of traders’ thinking. That said, EUR/USD is rallying this morning and is back through 1.10 as the dollar gets sold off across the board. It’s now through 1.1030 and is a bit firmer vs. the pound with GBP/EUR trading at 1.3540 currently.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.3520 to 1.3610

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars: Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD dropped off throughout their local sessions. There was no new data released overnight and it was perhaps down to nothing more than weaker data from Australia and NZ released earlier in the week. Both are back up this morning however as the greenback gets sold off in the early London session and they open this morning at .7870 and .7630 respectively. GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD are both a little higher this morning and trade at 1.8995 and 1.9590.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.8880 to 1.9060

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.9400 to 1.9660

Data Releases

AUD: No data

EUR: M3 Money Supply y/y, Private Loans y/y

GBP: Retail Sales m/m, CBI Realized Sales

NZD: No data

USD: Unemployment Claims, Flash Services PMI

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