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23 Mar 2015
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Markets await UK inflation data

United States Dollar: The dollar started the week on the back foot as investors sold off the greenback in the wake of last week’s dovish FOMC statement. With investors putting back the expected date of the first Fed rate hike from June to September the dollar’s recent advance seems to have come to a halt, at least for now. GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.4944 after trading as high as 1.4970 overnight. We may see a test of the 1.50 level should UK CPI, released at 9:30am, print higher than expected. Markets are expecting a fall from 0.3% to 0.1% as prices are driven lower by the falling cost of oil. Comments last week by MPC member Andy Haldane that the next move by the Bank of England could as easily be a rate cut as a rate hike given the falling CPI figure means this release could cause some extra volatility. This afternoon sees m/m CPI data from the States too with a rebound of 0.2% from last month’s -0.7% drop expected.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.4850 to 1.5050

Euro: EUR/USD has pushed higher over the past 24 hours with the dollar sell-off benefiting the shared currency. After cracking 1.08 yesterday morning and 1.09 yesterday afternoon, EUR/USD is looking to test 1.10 after a stronger than expected German Manufacturing PMI released a short time ago. The release came in at 52.4 better than the 51.5 expected and the highest release since July 2014. The Eurozone’s main economy appears to be picking up steam after a sluggish 2014. GBP/EUR currently sits at 1.3605. Later this morning we have Manufacturing and Service PMI figures for the Eurozone as a whole with a slight improvement expected from last month’s readings.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.3515 to 1.37

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars: The commodity currencies have risen since the start of the week with AUD/USD pushing up from .7770 to currently trade at .7886 and NZD/USD moving from .7575 to .7665. The first notable data release this week from the antipodeans is tonight’s trade balance figures from New Zealand with a surplus of NZD375M expected for February. Shortly after, we have Australia’s latest Financial Stability Review from the RBA. GBP/AUD is currently at 1.8990 and GBP/NZD is at 1.9530.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.8855 to 1.9120

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.94 to 1.9645

Data Releases

AUD: RBA Financial Stability Review

EUR: No data

GBP: CPI y/y

NZD: Trade Balance

USD: CPI m/m; Core CPI m/m

If you want instant updates on movements in the FX market and fast access to the UKForex daily commentary, follow us on twitter at http://twitter.com/ukforex or @ukforex

23 Mar 2015
Share

Markets await UK inflation data

United States Dollar: The dollar started the week on the back foot as investors sold off the greenback in the wake of last week’s dovish FOMC statement. With investors putting back the expected date of the first Fed rate hike from June to September the dollar’s recent advance seems to have come to a halt, at least for now. GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.4944 after trading as high as 1.4970 overnight. We may see a test of the 1.50 level should UK CPI, released at 9:30am, print higher than expected. Markets are expecting a fall from 0.3% to 0.1% as prices are driven lower by the falling cost of oil. Comments last week by MPC member Andy Haldane that the next move by the Bank of England could as easily be a rate cut as a rate hike given the falling CPI figure means this release could cause some extra volatility. This afternoon sees m/m CPI data from the States too with a rebound of 0.2% from last month’s -0.7% drop expected.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.4850 to 1.5050

Euro: EUR/USD has pushed higher over the past 24 hours with the dollar sell-off benefiting the shared currency. After cracking 1.08 yesterday morning and 1.09 yesterday afternoon, EUR/USD is looking to test 1.10 after a stronger than expected German Manufacturing PMI released a short time ago. The release came in at 52.4 better than the 51.5 expected and the highest release since July 2014. The Eurozone’s main economy appears to be picking up steam after a sluggish 2014. GBP/EUR currently sits at 1.3605. Later this morning we have Manufacturing and Service PMI figures for the Eurozone as a whole with a slight improvement expected from last month’s readings.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.3515 to 1.37

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars: The commodity currencies have risen since the start of the week with AUD/USD pushing up from .7770 to currently trade at .7886 and NZD/USD moving from .7575 to .7665. The first notable data release this week from the antipodeans is tonight’s trade balance figures from New Zealand with a surplus of NZD375M expected for February. Shortly after, we have Australia’s latest Financial Stability Review from the RBA. GBP/AUD is currently at 1.8990 and GBP/NZD is at 1.9530.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.8855 to 1.9120

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.94 to 1.9645

Data Releases

AUD: RBA Financial Stability Review

EUR: No data

GBP: CPI y/y

NZD: Trade Balance

USD: CPI m/m; Core CPI m/m

If you want instant updates on movements in the FX market and fast access to the UKForex daily commentary, follow us on twitter at http://twitter.com/ukforex or @ukforex