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18 Jun 2015
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Pound rises after positive Retail Sales data

United States Dollar: USD has recouped some of the losses it experienced in the past 48 hours as the ongoing Greek impasse sees the greenback well bid this morning. Fed Chair, Janet Yellens dovish press conference on Wednesday evening saw cable break through 1.58 and it pushed even higher yesterday morning as UK Retail Sales beat expectations to show 0.2% growth for May when a flat reading was forecast. The report showed the annual level of growth was 4.6% higher than May last year and the 26th consecutive monthly reading of annual expansion, the longest run since the crash. The positive data saw cable break through 1.59 for the first time since November. Top-tier data from the States yesterday saw Unemployment claims post its 15th consecutive sub 300k reading (267k), the Philly Fed MI posted 15.2 (exp 8.1) and both m/m CPI and m/m Core CPI fell 0.1% short of expectations, posting 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. The reaction to the data was fairly muted with cable moving between 1.5850 and 1.5910 throughout most of the New York session. We currently sit at 1.5865. Public Sector Net Borrowing data is out from the UK this morning with a £10.1B deficit pencilled in.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5775 – 1.5920

Euro: Greece’s debt crisis continues to dominate the news with the latest round of emergency talks getting nowhere. Pension reform, VAT hikes on medicines and electricity and the privatisation of state assets remain the areas of disagreement with neither side willing to budge. The Greek Syriza party was elected on a promise there would be no cuts to state pensions and of all the disputes this at the heart of the matter this one seems to be where the deepest divisions between Greece and the institutions lie. With IMF chief, Christine Lagarde, saying Greece will be in default if they fail to meet a rolled-up €1.6B debt obligation due on the 30th of June there is now 11 days left to resolve the crisis before the ECB could be possibly forced to remove its emergency funding to Greek banks sending Greece into the abyss. The Euro has been sold off on the back of the latest communication breakdown with EUR/USD currently sitting at 1.1325. GBP/EUR is currently hovering around 1.40.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.3930 – 1.4155

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars: The mid-week gains the Aussie and Kiwi saw post-FOMC have evaporated with the Greek tragedy seeing them sold-off as we head to the weekend. AUD/USD sits at .7765 after testing .7850 on Wednesday. NZD/USD is at .6905 after earlier cracking 70 cents. Sterling’s recent positive run sees GBP/AUD at 2.0425 close to the six-year high it hit mid-week. GBP/NZD trades at 2.2960 its highest since early 2010.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 2.0260 – 2.0530

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.2790 – 2.3075

Data Releases

AUD: No data

EUR: ECOFIN Meetings

GBP: No data

NZD: No datay

USD: FOMC Member Williams Speaks

If you want instant updates on movements in the FX market and fast access to the UKForex daily commentary, follow us on twitter at http://twitter.com/ukforex or @ukforex

18 Jun 2015
Share

Pound rises after positive Retail Sales data

United States Dollar: USD has recouped some of the losses it experienced in the past 48 hours as the ongoing Greek impasse sees the greenback well bid this morning. Fed Chair, Janet Yellens dovish press conference on Wednesday evening saw cable break through 1.58 and it pushed even higher yesterday morning as UK Retail Sales beat expectations to show 0.2% growth for May when a flat reading was forecast. The report showed the annual level of growth was 4.6% higher than May last year and the 26th consecutive monthly reading of annual expansion, the longest run since the crash. The positive data saw cable break through 1.59 for the first time since November. Top-tier data from the States yesterday saw Unemployment claims post its 15th consecutive sub 300k reading (267k), the Philly Fed MI posted 15.2 (exp 8.1) and both m/m CPI and m/m Core CPI fell 0.1% short of expectations, posting 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. The reaction to the data was fairly muted with cable moving between 1.5850 and 1.5910 throughout most of the New York session. We currently sit at 1.5865. Public Sector Net Borrowing data is out from the UK this morning with a £10.1B deficit pencilled in.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5775 – 1.5920

Euro: Greece’s debt crisis continues to dominate the news with the latest round of emergency talks getting nowhere. Pension reform, VAT hikes on medicines and electricity and the privatisation of state assets remain the areas of disagreement with neither side willing to budge. The Greek Syriza party was elected on a promise there would be no cuts to state pensions and of all the disputes this at the heart of the matter this one seems to be where the deepest divisions between Greece and the institutions lie. With IMF chief, Christine Lagarde, saying Greece will be in default if they fail to meet a rolled-up €1.6B debt obligation due on the 30th of June there is now 11 days left to resolve the crisis before the ECB could be possibly forced to remove its emergency funding to Greek banks sending Greece into the abyss. The Euro has been sold off on the back of the latest communication breakdown with EUR/USD currently sitting at 1.1325. GBP/EUR is currently hovering around 1.40.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.3930 – 1.4155

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars: The mid-week gains the Aussie and Kiwi saw post-FOMC have evaporated with the Greek tragedy seeing them sold-off as we head to the weekend. AUD/USD sits at .7765 after testing .7850 on Wednesday. NZD/USD is at .6905 after earlier cracking 70 cents. Sterling’s recent positive run sees GBP/AUD at 2.0425 close to the six-year high it hit mid-week. GBP/NZD trades at 2.2960 its highest since early 2010.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 2.0260 – 2.0530

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.2790 – 2.3075

Data Releases

AUD: No data

EUR: ECOFIN Meetings

GBP: No data

NZD: No datay

USD: FOMC Member Williams Speaks

If you want instant updates on movements in the FX market and fast access to the UKForex daily commentary, follow us on twitter at http://twitter.com/ukforex or @ukforex