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09 Feb 2017
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US Appeals Court rules against Trump”s immigration ban. 

United States Dollar:

The main data release yesterday came in the form of US Unemployment claims, which unexpectedly fell from 246K to 234K. This will help bolster the US job market following mixed messages last week. Donald Trump is back in the headlines this morning as the appeals court officially rules against his immigration ban. In true Trump fashion, the US president took to twitter to voice his displeasure, stating that he will bring this battle to the Supreme Court. Overnight saw Trump continue to imply he is on the brink of introducing tax reforms and deregulating the financial industries. This deregulation has already been met with opposition, notably from ECB President Draghi, who stated earlier this week that these deregulations may lead to a global recession. Rifts between the US and the EU on fiscal policy are becoming somewhat of a regular occurrence and will likely be a cause of volatility in the coming months. The major data release from the US today will be Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment which is due to contract from 98.5 to 97.9. This will unlikely move markets but will give investors something to digest as we head into the weekend.

 

A very quiet day in terms of data from the UK yesterday saw investors turn attention to Governor Mark Carney speaking yesterday evening. Carney steered relatively clear of fiscal policy and used his platform to encourage diversity and inclusion within the banking industry. The main point of discussion over the next month will be surrounding the Brexit Bill debates in the upper chamber of parliament. These debates will begin on February 20th and will likely run until the end of March. The main data release for today will be Manufacturing Production m/m. This is due to decrease from 1.3% last month to 0.3% and is scheduled for 9:30 am. GBP/USD is currently sitting at 1.2472.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD1.2430 to 1.2500

Euro:

The main release from the Eurozone yesterday came in the form of German Trade Balance which contracted to 18.4M from 21.8M. Moving into today investors will likely have further worries, as just weeks before a bailout plan is due to be proposed for Greece, investors have seen Greek bonds weaken. Markets will be concerned that Greece may be moving towards a critical point and what this may mean for an already fragile euro. Little data of note is due today as we await Italian Industrial Production m/m which is due to fall from 0.7% to 0.1% at 9:00 am. Investors will turn to wider economic events for guidance. GBP/EUR is currently sitting at 1.1721.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.1690 to 1.1760

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars:

Very little data out today for both the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars. Investors will continue to digest this week’s rate decisions, which saw the Kiwi Dollar fall sharply and turn to wider economic events for movement today. GBP/AUD is currently sitting at 1.6329 and GBP/NZD is at 1.7360.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.6300 to 1.6380

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.7300 to 1.7400

Data Releases

AUD: No Data

EUR: Italian Industrial Production m/m

GBP: Manufacturing Production m/m

NZD: No data

USD: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

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