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29 Jun 2015
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We’re sorry its late but heres the latest on the euro and Greece

United States Dollar: GBP/USD fell to a low of 1.5675 this morning as concerns for the existence of Greece as part of the Eurozone worsened over the weekend. The Greek government has called a referendum for 5th July, this after pulling out of negotiations with its creditors on Sunday evening. As such, and knowing that without the country having any form of bailout in place, the ECB said it would no longer provide any more emergency lending support to Greek banks. It meant - and still means - that Greece is heading for default. Global stocks were smashed lower on opening and the euro shed 2% vs. the US dollar in the early Asia trading session. The fall-out in the euro was short-lived however as there still remains some time for Greece and its creditors to get a deal done and avoid a default. The Swiss National Bank were also busily intervening in the FX market this morning to prevent its currency appreciating too much in the wake of safe haven demand, which lent further support to the single currency. A bit of profit taking in the early London session also helped and EUR/USD steadily recovered throughout the day. So did GBP/USD, and as the London session comes to a close GBP/USD trades at 1.5755.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5550 to 1.5845

Euro: Despite the recovery in EUR/USD, the outlook remains very uncertain and volatility will likely continue throughout the week. Although this is unprecedented this isn’t a Lehman’s and so any failure of Greece to reach agreement with creditors will not come as a complete surprise. Investors have been building up to this very possibility and it’s partly priced in to the euro already. There remains hope though – Merkel has said that Germany remains open to negotiations if Greece wants to talk…..EUR/USD is back at 1.1170 this afternoon (after dipping to 1.0950 overnight) and GBP/EUR is back down to 1.4115 after topping out at 1.43.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.4050 to 1.4200

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars: AUD/USD and NZD/USD fell to respective lows of .7585 and .6785 overnight after the initial Greek scares took hold. Both have recovered mildly in line with healthier euro bids this afternoon and have remained quite steady towards the end of the European session. Both currencies are still vulnerable to further developments in Europe however so stay tuned for bigger moves as the week goes on.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 2.0350 to 2.0810

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.2950 to 2.3200

Data Releases

AUD: HIA New Home Sales m/m, Private Sector Credit m/m

EUR: German Retail Sales m/m, French Consumer Spending m/m, German Unemployment Change, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Unemployment Rate, Italian Prelim CPI m/m

GBP: Current Account, Final GDP q/q, Index of Services 3m/3m, Revised Business Investment q/q

NZD: Building Consents m/m, ANZ Business Confidence

USD: Chicago PMI, CB Consumer Confidence

If you want instant updates on movements in the FX market and fast access to the UKForex daily commentary, follow us on twitter at http://twitter.com/ukforex or @ukforex

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29 Jun 2015
Share

We’re sorry its late but heres the latest on the euro and Greece

United States Dollar: GBP/USD fell to a low of 1.5675 this morning as concerns for the existence of Greece as part of the Eurozone worsened over the weekend. The Greek government has called a referendum for 5th July, this after pulling out of negotiations with its creditors on Sunday evening. As such, and knowing that without the country having any form of bailout in place, the ECB said it would no longer provide any more emergency lending support to Greek banks. It meant - and still means - that Greece is heading for default. Global stocks were smashed lower on opening and the euro shed 2% vs. the US dollar in the early Asia trading session. The fall-out in the euro was short-lived however as there still remains some time for Greece and its creditors to get a deal done and avoid a default. The Swiss National Bank were also busily intervening in the FX market this morning to prevent its currency appreciating too much in the wake of safe haven demand, which lent further support to the single currency. A bit of profit taking in the early London session also helped and EUR/USD steadily recovered throughout the day. So did GBP/USD, and as the London session comes to a close GBP/USD trades at 1.5755.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5550 to 1.5845

Euro: Despite the recovery in EUR/USD, the outlook remains very uncertain and volatility will likely continue throughout the week. Although this is unprecedented this isn’t a Lehman’s and so any failure of Greece to reach agreement with creditors will not come as a complete surprise. Investors have been building up to this very possibility and it’s partly priced in to the euro already. There remains hope though – Merkel has said that Germany remains open to negotiations if Greece wants to talk…..EUR/USD is back at 1.1170 this afternoon (after dipping to 1.0950 overnight) and GBP/EUR is back down to 1.4115 after topping out at 1.43.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.4050 to 1.4200

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars: AUD/USD and NZD/USD fell to respective lows of .7585 and .6785 overnight after the initial Greek scares took hold. Both have recovered mildly in line with healthier euro bids this afternoon and have remained quite steady towards the end of the European session. Both currencies are still vulnerable to further developments in Europe however so stay tuned for bigger moves as the week goes on.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 2.0350 to 2.0810

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.2950 to 2.3200

Data Releases

AUD: HIA New Home Sales m/m, Private Sector Credit m/m

EUR: German Retail Sales m/m, French Consumer Spending m/m, German Unemployment Change, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Unemployment Rate, Italian Prelim CPI m/m

GBP: Current Account, Final GDP q/q, Index of Services 3m/3m, Revised Business Investment q/q

NZD: Building Consents m/m, ANZ Business Confidence

USD: Chicago PMI, CB Consumer Confidence

If you want instant updates on movements in the FX market and fast access to the UKForex daily commentary, follow us on twitter at http://twitter.com/ukforex or @ukforex

Learn more about