Sentix’s monthly “euro break-up” index, based on a survey of around 1,000 institutional and retail investors, rose to 25.2% in February, from 21.3% in January.
A separate gauge measuring the risk of contagion rose above 45%, surpassing levels last seen during the peak of the 2012/2013 Eurozone debt crisis.
“After two years’ absence, the euro crisis is back in the spotlight,” Sentix researcher Manfred Huebner said. “However, this time is different. The protagonists have multiplied as France and Italy now join Greece as likely exit candidates.”
The sub-index for Greece showed, the around one in five investors predict that the indebted country will leave the EU, while the risk of Italy leaving was ranked lower at around 14%.
Sentix also revealed that the sub-index for France rose to 8.4%, its highest level since the survey’s conception.
Huebner explained that the increase in exit probabilities was down to growing uncertainty among investors about forecasters’ ability to predict election outcomes accurately. “Investors fear forecasters might get it wrong again after last year’s surprise victory of (U.S. President Donald) Trump and Brexit.”
However, Heubner went on to add, that the probability of a surprise election victory of anti-euro, far-right leader Marine Le Pen in France’s presidential was less than likely.